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IJMS Vol.37(1) [March 2008] >


Title: Predictive skill of DEMETER models for wind prediction over southern subtropical Indian Ocean
Authors: Rai, Shailendra
Pandey, A C
Tripath, K C i
Dwivedi, Suneet
Keywords: ECMWF
DEMETER Project
Wind
Indian Ocean
Forecast skill
Issue Date: Mar-2008
Publisher: CSIR
Abstract: The ensemble mean prediction of winds at 850 hPa from individual models of DEMETER project has been compared from NCEP observation over southern subtropical Indian Ocean during summer monsoon season (JJAS) for the time domain 1980-2001. Predictability of U850 hPa (U850) and V850 hPa (V850) has been tested by different statistical approach like root mean square error (RMSE) for the region between Madagascar and western Australia in view of the importance of this region in anomalous variation of south central African rainfall variability as evidenced by some recent studies. A dichotomous forecast skill measure has been performed by calculating predictive skill measures like accuracy, bias, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ration (FAR), probability of false detection (POFD), threat score (TS), equivalent threat score (ETS) and Heidke skill score (HSS) for model produced U850 and V850 from all the individual models and multi model ensemble (MME). It has been found that the root mean square error has been reduced by applying MME but there is no effect on dichotomous predictive skill measures.
Page(s): 62-69
ISSN: 0379-5136
Source:IJMS Vol.37(1) [March 2008]

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