NISCAIR Online Periodicals Repository

Research Journals >
Indian Journal of Geo-Marine Sciences (IJMS) >
IJMS Vol.32 [2003] >
IJMS Vol.32(4) [December 2003] >

Title:  Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India
Authors: Srinivas, K.
Revichandran, C.
Kumar, P. K. Dinesh
Keywords: Cochin estuarine system
met-ocean parameters
seasonal variation
statistical forecasting
Issue Date: Dec-2003
Publisher: CSIR
Abstract: Three different statistical forecasting techniques - autoregressive, sinusoidal and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) were used to forecast monthly values of meteorological and oceanographic (met-ocean) parameters viz. sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, rainfall, relative density and sea level, in the Cochin estuarine system. The EWMA technique (which yields forecast with a lead time of only one month) gave the lowest root mean square errors relative to the verifying observations. Atmospheric pressure could be forecast with less than 5 % of error while SST and air temperature with less than 10 % of error, by all the three techniques. 80% of the time, sea level could be forecast with less than 10 % error, by each of the three techniques. However, wind speed, relative density and rainfall could not be forecast by any of the three techniques with any acceptable degree of accuracy.
Page(s): 285-293
ISSN: 0379-5136
Source:IJMS Vol.32(4) [December 2003]

Files in This Item:

File Description SizeFormat
IJMS 32(4) 285-293.pdf309.19 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
 Current Page Visits: 1081 
Recommend this item


Online Submission of Articles |  NISCAIR Website |  National Knowledge Resources Consortium |  Contact us |  Feedback

Disclaimer: NISCAIR assumes no responsibility for the statements and opinions advanced by contributors. The editorial staff in its work of examining papers received for publication is helped, in an honorary capacity, by many distinguished engineers and scientists.

CC License Except where otherwise noted, the Articles on this site are licensed under Creative Commons License: CC Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 2.5 India

Copyright © 2015 The Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi. All rights reserved.

Powered by DSpace Copyright © 2002-2007 MIT and Hewlett-Packard | Compliant to OAI-PMH V 2.0

Home Page Total Visits: 165684 since 01-Sep-2015  Last updated on 27-Jun-2016Webmaster: