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IJMS Vol.32(4) [December 2003] >


Title:  Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India
Authors: Srinivas, K.
Revichandran, C.
Kumar, P. K. Dinesh
Keywords: Cochin estuarine system
met-ocean parameters
seasonal variation
statistical forecasting
Issue Date: Dec-2003
Publisher: CSIR
Abstract: Three different statistical forecasting techniques - autoregressive, sinusoidal and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) were used to forecast monthly values of meteorological and oceanographic (met-ocean) parameters viz. sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, rainfall, relative density and sea level, in the Cochin estuarine system. The EWMA technique (which yields forecast with a lead time of only one month) gave the lowest root mean square errors relative to the verifying observations. Atmospheric pressure could be forecast with less than 5 % of error while SST and air temperature with less than 10 % of error, by all the three techniques. 80% of the time, sea level could be forecast with less than 10 % error, by each of the three techniques. However, wind speed, relative density and rainfall could not be forecast by any of the three techniques with any acceptable degree of accuracy.
Page(s): 285-293
ISSN: 0379-5136
Source:IJMS Vol.32(4) [December 2003]

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