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Title: Effect of cumulus and microphysical parameterizations on the JAL cyclone prediction
Authors: Reddy, M Venkatarami
Prasad, S B Surendra
Krishna, U V Murali
Reddy, K Krishna
Keywords: JAL cyclone;Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model);Cumulus parameter;Microphysical parameters;Vorticity;Divergence;Convergence
Issue Date: Feb-2014
Publisher: NISCAIR-CSIR, India
PACS No.: 92.60.Aa; 92.60.hb; 92.60.Wc
Abstract: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to predict the track and intensity of JAL cyclone, which formed during 04-08 November 2010 over the Bay of Bengal. The model has been simulated with numerous experiments using the logical/scientific combination of convection and micro-physics schemes. The model simulations have been conducted with different initial conditions to know the effective track and intensity prediction of JAL cyclone. In addition, the effect of cumulus parameterization schemes at different resolution (27 and 9 km) on the cyclone track and intensity is reported. The model simulated results showed the importance of cumulus schemes and their role at 9 km horizontal resolution. The results indicate that the track predicted by Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme is in good agreement with the observed track in all the experiments and the land fall error is minimum (~11 km) for the combination of Ferrier and KF scheme with 0000 hrs UTC on 04 November 2010 as initial condition. Strong intensity is produced by KF, New Grell (NG) schemes and weak intensity is produced by Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) scheme with all microphysics parameterization (MP) combinations. Further, the dependency of intensity of cyclone has been studied in terms of surface latent heat flux, divergence and vorticity fields. To validate the model performance, different meteorological parameters are derived from the model simulations over three different regions and are compared with the observed meteorological parameters. The model results are in good agreement with the observed parameters, but variations are observed at the landfall /dissipation of the cyclone.
Page(s): 103-123
ISSN: 0975-105X (Online); 0367-8393 (Print)
Appears in Collections:IJRSP Vol.43(1) [February 2014]

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