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Title: On the Selection of Growth-Curve Models for Forecasting the Diffusion of IT Technologies
Authors: Park, Yong-tae
Yoon, Byung-un
Kim, Moon-soo
Issue Date: Nov-2000
Publisher: NISCAIR-CSIR, India
Abstract: Several growth-curve forecasting models are compared with respect to empirical data sets from IT industry of Korea and attempt is made to suggest a case-wise guiding principle in terms of technology (service) type and data length. It turns out, as expected, no single model consistently outperforms others across all data sets. Instead, for a given data type, we can determine which models should be recommended and which should be avoided. A good practice then is to evaluate two or three preferred models in terms of multiple performance measures and make a final decision based on the results. The practical usefulness of the select ion guideline is confirmed by practitioners of some principal IT firms in Korea.
Page(s): 912-918
ISSN: 0975-1084 (Online); 0022-4456 (Print)
Appears in Collections:JSIR Vol.59(11) [November 2000]

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