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Title: The great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 was predictable even from seismicity data of mb≥4.5: A lesson to learn from nature
Authors: Teotia, S.S.
Kumar, Dinesh
Keywords: Seismicity
Self-organized criticality
Multifractal analysis
Issue Date: Jun-2007
Publisher: CSIR
Abstract: The spatial distribution of earthquakes is found to change before and after occurrence of an earthquake of given size. The occurrence of an earthquake of any size may be related with the self-organized criticality behavior of turbulence in solids. This change is reflected in the temporal variation of generalized dimension Dq or Dq spectra. Therefore, the study of temporal variations of Dq and Dq spectra may be used to study the changes in Seismicity structure before the occurrence of earthquakes and hence multifractal study holds promise in forcasting earthquake in the regions having potential to generate great earthquake. The study in this paper deals with multifractal analysis of seismicity data of the region which have resulted in great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004. The significant increase in D₋₂ and Dq spectra has been observed prior to occurrence of (mb=9, Mw =9.1 to 9.3) great Sumatra-Andaman 26th December 2004 even with seismicity data having completeness of catalogue for mb≥4.5. The monitoring of USGS global network holds promise to reveal changes in Dq prior to occurrence of great earthquakes even from earthquake catalogue which have their completeness for magnitudes (i.e. mb≥4.5)
Page(s): 122-127
ISSN: 0379-5136
Source:IJMS Vol.36(2) [June 2007]

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