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Title: A logistic regression model for prediction of premonsoon convective development over Kolkata
Authors: Dasgupta, S
De, U K
Keywords: Regression model;Convective development;Premonsoon prediction
Issue Date: Aug-2004
Publisher: NISCAIR-CSIR, India
IPC Code: GO1W 1/00; GO1W 1/10
PACS No.: 92.60. Ek; 92.60. Ry; 92.60 Wc
Abstract: Certain parameters (both dynamic and thermodynamic) have been identified as significant for the occurrence of convective developments in the premonsoon period (March-May) in Kolkata (India). In the present paper, an attempt has been made to develop a logistic regression model for prediction of the risk of occurrence of these convective developments from a knowledge of the values of significant parameters. The model was developed on the basis of a sample of 87 days covering the premonsoon period of the year 1990. When used for the purpose of validation on the basis of data of an arbitrarily chosen year, it yielded about 80% correct predictions.
Page(s): 252-255
ISSN: 0975-105X (Online); 0367-8393 (Print)
Appears in Collections:IJRSP Vol.33(4) [August 2004]

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