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|Title:||Three-cycle quasi-periodicity in solar, geophysical, cosmic ray data and global climate change|
|Authors:||Ahluwalia, H S|
Solar cycle predictions
|Abstract:||The discovery of a three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in the planetary indices (Ap/aa), interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) intensity (B) and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) has been described [Ahluwalia H S, Three activity cycle periodicity in galactic cosmic rays? <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">Proc 25th Int Cosmic Ray Conf</i> (Durban, South Africa), 2, 1997b, pp 109-112; Ahluwalia H S, The predicted size of cycle 23 based on the inferred three cycle quasi-periodicity of the planetary index Ap, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">J Geophys Res (USA)</i>, 103 (1998) pp 12103–12109; Ahluwalia H S, The development of solar cycle 23: Reply to Wilson & Hathaway’s comment, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal">J Geophys Res (USA)</i>, 104 (1999) pp 2559–2561]. It led to the development of a heuristic methodology for predicting the peak smooth sunspot numbers (SSNs) and the rise time for a new solar activity cycle. The scheme was used to predict key parameters for the SSN cycle 23. The predictions were right on the mark, one of the very few predictions to have achieved this status. The smoothed SSNs for cycle 24 have been increasing slowly since its onset in December 2008. Ahluwalia & Jackewicz [<span style="mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt" lang="EN-GB">Ahluwalia H S & Jackiewicz J, Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal">Adv Space Res (UK)</i>, 50 (2012) pp 662-668] have predicted that cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23 and reach its peak in May 2013 ± 6 months. In the present paper, the present status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 has been reported and its timeline has been compared with those of the previous ten cycles (10-23) of the twentieth century. Drawing from the past history, Ahluwalia & Jackewicz noted that we may be on the eve of a Dalton-like minimum. The ascending phase of cycle 24 is compared with those of cycles 5 and 14 that led to the start of two recent Grand Minima, namely the Dalton and the Gleissberg Minima, respectively. The physical significance of the findings is discussed and speculated about their implications for the global climate change and probable socioeconomic and political future happenings. </span>|
|ISSN:||0975-105X (Online); 0367-8393 (Print)|
|Appears in Collections:||IJRSP Vol.41(5) [October 2012]|
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