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Indian Journal of Radio & Space Physics (IJRSP) >
IJRSP Vol.41 [2012] >
IJRSP Vol.41(5) [October 2012] >
| Title: | Three-cycle quasi-periodicity in solar, geophysical, cosmic ray data and global climate change |
| Authors: | Ahluwalia, H S |
| Keywords: | Solar activity
Cosmic rays
Solar cycle predictions
Three-cycle quasi-periodicity |
| Issue Date: | Oct-2012 |
| Publisher: | NISCAIR-CSIR, India |
| PACS No.: | 92.70.Qr; 94.20.wq; 96.60.qd |
| Abstract: | The discovery of a three-cycle quasi-periodicity
(TCQP) in the planetary indices (Ap/aa), interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
intensity (B) and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) has been described [Ahluwalia H S,
Three activity cycle periodicity in galactic cosmic rays? Proc 25th Int Cosmic Ray Conf (Durban, South Africa), 2, 1997b, pp 109-112;
Ahluwalia H S, The predicted size of cycle 23 based on the inferred three cycle
quasi-periodicity of the planetary index Ap, J Geophys Res (USA), 103 (1998) pp 12103–12109; Ahluwalia H S, The
development of solar cycle 23: Reply to Wilson & Hathaway’s comment, J Geophys Res (USA), 104 (1999) pp 2559–2561].
It led to the development of a heuristic methodology
for predicting the peak smooth sunspot numbers (SSNs) and the rise time for a new
solar activity cycle. The scheme was used to predict key parameters for the SSN
cycle 23. The predictions were right on the mark, one of the very few
predictions to have achieved this status. The smoothed SSNs for cycle 24 have
been increasing slowly since its onset in December 2008. Ahluwalia &
Jackewicz [Ahluwalia H
S & Jackiewicz J, Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and
forecasts for cycle 24 activity, Adv
Space Res (UK), 50 (2012) pp 662-668] have
predicted that cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23 and reach its
peak in May 2013 ± 6 months. In the present paper, the present status of the
ascending phase of cycle 24 has been reported and its timeline has been compared
with those of the previous ten cycles (10-23) of the twentieth century. Drawing
from the past history, Ahluwalia & Jackewicz noted that we may be on the
eve of a Dalton-like minimum. The ascending phase of cycle 24 is compared with
those of cycles 5 and 14 that led to the start of two recent Grand Minima,
namely the Dalton
and the Gleissberg Minima, respectively. The physical significance of the
findings is discussed
and speculated about their implications for the global climate change and probable
socioeconomic and political future happenings.
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| Page(s): | 509-519 |
| CC License: |  CC Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 2.5 India |
| ISSN: | 0975-105X (Online); 0367-8393 (Print) |
| Source: | IJRSP Vol.41(5) [October 2012]
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