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|Title:||Distributed basin-scale model for water resources assessment under different climate change scenarios|
|Authors:||Goel, M K|
Sapra, Tilak Raj
|Abstract:||A number of climate change scenarios predict rise in temperature and change in precipitation characteristics in the near future which may affect various components of water cycle, thereby changing the availability of water in space and time. To cope up with the emerging challenges due to climate change impact on water resources and develop adaptation strategies, it is important to carry out detailed modeling analysis at basin scale so that the current components of water cycle at/below the land surface could be evaluated and future components could be predicted in the light of various climate change scenarios. In the present modeling approaches, it is difficult to account for the effect of various developmental activities and climate sensitive parameters on water resources scenario in a river basin. Therefore, a need was felt to develop a detailed model to assess various components of the hydrological cycle in a river basin and to estimate the demands for various purposes. To evaluate various components of the hydrological cycle at the basin scale, a conceptual spatially distributed water balance model has been developed. In this model, focus is given to incorporate spatial variation of land-use, soil type, rainfall, evapo-transpiration, physiographic characteristics, cropping pattern, irrigation development, groundwater conditions, river network and hydraulic structures in a river basin. GIS is employed to link the spatial data with the simulation model and to project the model results in map form for easy visualization. The basin is divided into grids of uniform size (~ 1 km) and model computes various components of hydrologic cycle such as actual evapo-transpiration, overland flow, groundwater recharge, and residual soil water content at monthly time step for each grid. The model brings out total water availability in the basin; water consumed by different uses; and water storage in different hydraulic structures, in soil water zone, and in groundwater aquifer in a river basin. The present paper gives a brief description of the developed model. Using this model, it is possible to simulate various past, present or future hydrological scenarios in a river basin.|
|ISSN:||0975-2412 (Online); 0771-7706 (Print)|
|Appears in Collections:||BVAAP Vol.20(1) [June 2012]|
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