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Title: Applicability of Patent Information in Technological Forecasting: A Sector-specific Approach
Authors: Yoon, Byungun
Lee, Sungjoo
Keywords: Patent analysis;S-curve;Sectoral patterns of innovation;Technological forecasting;R&D investment
Issue Date: Jan-2012
Publisher: NISCAIR-CSIR, India
Abstract: Since the strategies of firms for protecting their innovations could vary between patents and trade secrets according to the characteristics of industries, patent analysis might not always be appropriate for forecasting technological trends in industries. This paper aims to identify relevant industries where patent information can be effectively utilized to scrutinize the trends and effects of technological activities. To this end, first, sectoral differences in patenting activities are explored by analysing the community innovation survey (CIS) data. Second, the applicability of patent trend analysis for technological forecasting is examined in each industry through the S-curve fitting process with patent data. Finally, correlation analysis between R&D data (R&D investment and loyalty income) and patent application data is performed to demonstrate the explanatory power of patent information in R&D management, by investigating the relationship between the inputs and outputs of a R&D system. The results of this paper will help support a strategic process for using patent analysis to envisage future trends and comprehend diverse characteristics of a technology.
Page(s): 37-45
ISSN: 0975-1076 (Online); 0971-7544 (Print)
Appears in Collections:JIPR Vol.17(1) [January 2012]

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